Off-plan vs resale in Spain 2026: five-year returns side by side

Spain's housing index posted +12.9% year-on-year in Q1 2026 per INE - the steepest quarterly print since 2007 and a sharper run than the +12.7% the index closed 2025 with. Both off-plan and resale rode that wave, but in different shapes. This guide unpacks how the two products actually performed over the last five years on Spain's east coast, where the spread favours which side now, and the risk you have to price in if you want the off-plan return without the off-plan headaches.

The five-year national picture

The INE house price index tracks transaction-priced resales separately from new-build registrations each quarter. Stitched together, the last five years look like this:

Year	National index, YoY	Resale, YoY	New-build, YoY	What it meant on the ground
2021	+6.4%	+5.8%	+8.8%	Post-COVID demand snapback, off-plan launches scarce
2022	+7.4%	+6.9%	+9.3%	ECB hiking, off-plan still scarce on the coast
2023	+4.2%	+3.4%	+7.5%	Mortgage compression year, resale slowed faster
2024	+8.4%	+7.9%	+10.7%	Rate cuts pulled buyers back, new build led
2025	+12.7%	+13.2%	+11.2%	Resale crossed over, supply crunch on new build

Two things in that table do not look like the popular thinking. 2025 was the first year of the cycle where resale outpaced new build nationally. And the headline +12.7% for 2025 was driven by resale, not by off-plan, because new-build supply was so thin it could not move the average up further. New homes in Spain still cost roughly 44% more per m² than resale on the same street, but year-on-year, the resale catch-up trade was the trade of 2025.

Cumulatively, a typical resale apartment on the Spanish mainland that you bought at the end of 2020 was worth roughly 40-45% more by Q1 2026 in nominal euros. An off-plan unit you bought at the same launch date and held to completion plus three years was up roughly 45-55%, depending on the coast and the speed of the developer. Both numbers beat Eurozone inflation handily.

Off-plan vs resale: how the two engines actually work

Off-plan: the price-curve trade

Buying off-plan in Spain means you sign a private contract with a developer at a project's launch price, pay 30-40% in staged deposits during construction (the rest at completion), and take delivery 18-30 months later when the works are finished. Two mechanical advantages:

• Launch-day discount. Developers price the first phase below market to get the project off the ground. Buyers at launch typically lock in 10-15% below comparable resale at the moment of contract. Inland Costa Cálida launches in 2024 priced 2-bed apartments at €150,000-€175,000 against a resale equivalent in the €180,000-€200,000 band.
• Time-in-market appreciation. If the regional market runs +6% per year while the unit is being built, a 24-month build delivers a paper gain of roughly +12% before you even move in. In a +12% national year like 2025 the same window doubled the gain.

Live examples currently on our catalog in the Costa Cálida / Torrevieja belt where most Spanish east-coast off-plan is being launched right now:

• WES-2227 - 2-bed new-build apartment, 67 m², €158,202 in the Los Alcazares ring of Murcia.
• WES-2402I - 2-bed new-build apartment, 65 m², €170,000 in the same belt.
• WES-2227D - 3-bed new-build apartment, 78 m², €225,570 for the family-buyer fit.

Resale: the cash-flow trade

Buying resale means a regular Spanish purchase from a private seller or a corporate owner. You complete in 30-45 days at the notary, get keys immediately, and can let the property out the next month. Mechanical advantages:

• Immediate rental income. A clean 2-bed resale in Torrevieja rented long-term currently runs €750-€900/month for a starter apartment. Annualised against a €180,000 purchase price that gives a gross yield of 5-6%. Costa Blanca holiday lets in the same band print 6-7% gross per Idealista's June 2025 report.
• No build risk. What you saw at the viewing is what you get at the notary. No 6-month construction slip, no missing community pool because phase 2 stalled.
• Tax on the lower side. Comunitat Valenciana resale buyers pay 10% ITP and that's it. New-build buyers pay 10% IVA + 1.5% AJD, total 11.5%, on a higher purchase price.

The five-year ROI math, run honestly

Two scenarios for a €200,000 budget, both held for five years from completion / purchase, both in the Torrevieja-Murcia coastal corridor where we have the deepest stock:

	Off-plan, 24-month build then 5 years	Resale, immediate hold for 5 years
Entry price (2024)	€175,000 (launch discount)	€200,000 (market)
Acquisition tax	€20,125 (11.5%)	€20,000 (10%)
Notary + lawyer	~€3,000	~€3,000
Total cash in	€198,125	€223,000
Value at year 5 (cumulative +35%)	€236,250	€270,000
Rental income, 24-month dead window	€0	~€21,000 (net of agency, IBI, comunidad, vacancy)
Rental income, years 3-5	~€18,000 net	€0 (already counted above)
Gross paper return at exit	€56,125	€68,000
Headline ROI on cash in	~28%	~30%

The resale scenario edges ahead in the simulation because of two years of rental income the off-plan misses while the unit is being built. That gap closes if the developer delivers fast (12-18 months) or if the launch discount lands above 15%. The off-plan scenario also benefits if you intend to live in the unit yourself, because you skip the rental-income calculation entirely and just compound the appreciation.

In high-demand pockets - Costa Blanca North villages with no land left to build on - the off-plan launch discount disappears, sometimes the launch price prints above the resale market, and the trade flips back to resale. Where you buy matters more than which product you pick.

Where the spread favours off-plan in 2026

The off-plan trade still works on Spain's east coast in 2026 in four specific pockets:

1. The Costa Cálida ring around Murcia. Los Alcazares, Pilar de la Horadada, San Pedro del Pinatar are mid-cycle launches with real launch discounts. We have 111 active listings in Torrevieja and 63 in Los Alcazares as of this week, a meaningful share of which are off-plan-phase units.
2. The Mar Menor reactivation belt. New infrastructure investment after the 2022 environmental restoration is pulling foreign-buyer interest back. Off-plan launches there in 2025 still showed 15-20% appreciation paper gains to completion.
3. Almería north coast. Vera and Garrucha launches are pricing 25-30% below Costa Blanca for similar product. The bet is the price gap closes by the time you complete.
4. Inland-from-Valencia villages. Towns like Bétera and L'Eliana are seeing new-build phases for the Madrid-relocation crowd who finally accepted they cannot afford Valencia city centre.

For investors over €350,000 budget who want the ladder higher, our active Costa Blanca apartments under €500,000 filter is the cleanest browse path.

Where the spread favours resale in 2026

Resale wins in 2026 in any market where (a) you need rental income to start immediately, (b) the resale yield is above 5.5% gross, and (c) new-build launches are scarce or overpriced versus comparable second-hand stock. That describes most of the Costa Blanca North - Denia, Calpe, Altea, Moraira - and the high-density city core of Valencia and Alicante.

It also describes any buyer who cannot wait 24 months for legal occupation. NLV applicants planning to land in Spain inside six months need a property with completed first-occupation licence on day one, which only resale can guarantee. Our guide to Spain's non-lucrative visa step by step walks the visa side of that decision.

Risks you have to price in if you go off-plan

The Spanish off-plan market is unusually buyer-protective compared to most of Europe, thanks to Ley 38/1999 de Ordenación de la Edificación plus its 2015 reinforcement. But buyer protection on paper is not the same as buyer protection in practice. Three things to lock down before you sign:

1. Bank guarantee on every deposit. Spanish law requires the developer to cover every staged payment with a bank guarantee in your name. That guarantee is what gets you a full refund plus interest if completion slips past the contracted date or if the developer goes bust. Never wire a deposit before your lawyer has confirmed the bank guarantee certificate exists and is correctly addressed.
2. Realistic completion windows. A developer promising 18 months almost always delivers in 30. Build that into your model. If you need rental income at month 19, the model breaks before you even start.
3. First-occupation licence (LPO). No LPO, no legal occupation, no mortgage drawdown by the bank. We have seen finished buildings sit empty for six months waiting on the town hall to issue the LPO. Your lawyer's job at completion is verifying the LPO is signed.

The good news: the legal framework is robust and the bank-guarantee enforcement track record under the BOE-published version of Ley 38/1999 is heavily buyer-favourable. The bad news: you have to do the work upfront to get there.

What to do next

If your budget is €150,000-€250,000 and you want off-plan exposure on the Costa Cálida belt, the cleanest entry points are our active Torrevieja apartments (111 active) and Los Alcazares apartments (63 active) - several of which are still in launch-phase pricing.

If your budget is €250,000-€500,000 and rental income from day one matters more than the launch-discount paper gain, our wider Costa Blanca apartment filter is the right starting net. For the underlying tax and total-cost math on either side, the total cost of buying property in Spain breakdown keeps the rounding honest.

If you want a vetted shortlist matched to your specific 5-year objective (yield, exit, residency), reply with your dates, budget and target city. Our buying-side fee when we represent you end-to-end is 1.5% of agreed purchase price; that includes off-plan contract due diligence and bank-guarantee verification.

FAQ

Should I buy off-plan or resale in Spain in 2026?

If you need rental income from month one, buy resale. If you can wait 24-30 months and your target market is Costa Cálida or Almería where launch discounts still exist, off-plan has the better five-year math. If your target is Costa Blanca North or central Valencia, resale almost always wins because new-build supply there is too thin to discount.

How much do I need to put down on a Spanish off-plan property?

Typically 30-40% spread across the build phase in 3-4 instalments, with the balance paid at completion. Most foreign buyers who finance the balance at completion can secure 60-65% LTV from a Spanish bank, subject to standard non-resident criteria. The non-resident mortgage breakdown covers the bank-side requirements.

What happens if the off-plan developer goes bankrupt?

The bank guarantee required by Ley 38/1999 covers every deposit you have paid, refundable with interest. The guarantee certificate must be in your name and tied to a specific construction account. This is the single most important document to lock down before transferring any money. Your lawyer should confirm the certificate before each instalment, not just the first one.

Do new-build apartments in Spain command higher rental yields?

In holiday-let markets along the Costa Blanca and Costa Cálida, yes: new builds command roughly 10-20% premium on short-term rates because of modern fittings, pool, lift and air-conditioning compliance. On long-term lets the rental gap shrinks to 5-10%. Net of the higher acquisition tax on new builds (11.5% vs 10%), the long-term yield advantage often disappears entirely.

Where in Spain are off-plan launches still pricing below comparable resale in 2026?

The Costa Cálida belt around Mar Menor (Los Alcazares, Pilar de la Horadada, San Pedro del Pinatar), the northern Almería coast (Vera, Garrucha), and inland villages within 30 minutes of Valencia city (Bétera, L'Eliana). Costa Blanca North (Denia, Calpe, Altea) no longer offers a meaningful off-plan launch discount because there is essentially no land left to build on.